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Deborah Winkler

World Bank

Deborah Winkler is a Senior Consultant in the World Bank Group’s Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. Deborah has worked on issues of global value chains, offshoring, export competitiveness, foreign direct investment, and trade in services; their determinants; and their economic and social effects. She is particularly interested in the role that policy can play in mediating these relationships. She is a former Research Associate of the New School for Social Research and received her PhD in economics from the University of Hohenheim in Germany.Most recently, Deborah was a lead author of the World Bank’s report on Women and Trade: The Role of Trade in Promoting Gender Equality (2020) and a core team member of the World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains (2019). 
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Sustainable Global Supply Chains Report 2022

Global supply chains affect the economy, the environment and social welfare in many ways. Worldwide, economies are experiencing global supply shortages today, affecting key industries such as automotive and consumer electronics as well as vaccine and medical supplies industries. These preoccupy policymakers, who are debating independent national production capacities and restrictions on international trade, but also large companies, which consider reshoring production and abandoning just-in-time procurement. At the same time, the greening of the global economy requires a restructuring of global production to massively decrease its environmental footprint. This creates new supply chain challenges – how to move towards circular economies and how to reorient energy-intensive industries towards renewables and green hydrogen, for example. And let‘s not forget: Consumers are increasingly demanding higher social and environmental standards. Transparency requirements and binding due diligence obligations will in particular affect countries that export raw materials and labour-intensive goods produced under problematic environmental and social conditions. All of this calls for policies that shape global supply chains in accordance with globally agreed social and environmental objectives. Policies along these lines will have to balance the legitimate interests of different countries and they may easily fail to achieve their objectives unless they are firmly grounded in a thorough understanding of the respective structures in supply chains, including the power relations between the actors. Further, the economic, social and environmental effects of alternative policy options need to be well understood. Science can make an important contribution here, especially if it maintains a constant dialogue with politics and society. This is why the international “Research Network Sustainable Global Supply Chains” was initiated by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). It currently comprises about 100 internationally leading scientists from all over the world and is jointly coordinated by our four institutes. Its tasks are: To conduct and stimulate research that contributes to making supply chains more sustainable; and to collect and synthesize the best international research on this topic and make it accessible to policy makers and other societal actors. In addition to its own research, the network organises academic conferences and discussions with policymakers, organises a blog and produces podcasts. With this report – the first in a new annual series – we present new research highlights, provide a forum to debate controversial supply chain topics and identify policy-relevant research gaps for the network‘s future work. The report is, at the same time, an invitation to participate in the discussions on how investment, production and trade will be reorganized in a global economy that has to respond to geopolitical challenges.

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blog
What determines countries’ global value chain participation? Three lessons from the past that matter for the future of global value chains
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Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains

This paper studies the trade effects of COVID-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector-level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by COVID-19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders’ vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks.

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Determinants of Global Value Chain Participation: Cross-Country Evidence

The past decades have witnessed big changes in international trade with the rise of global value chains (GVCs). Some countries, such as China, Poland, and Vietnam rode the tide, while other countries, many in the Africa region, faltered. This paper studies the determinants of countries’ GVC participation, based on a panel database of more than 100 countries from 1990 to 2015. Results from a three-pronged empirical approach show that factor endowments, geography, political stability, liberal trade policies, foreign direct investment and domestic industrial capacity are very important in determining GVC participation. These factors matter more for GVC trade than traditional trade.

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Women and Trade: The role of trade in promoting gender equality

In view of the complexity of the relationship between trade and gender, it is important to assess the potential impact of trade policy on both women and men and to develop appropriate policies to ensure that trade contributes to enhancing opportunities for all. Building on new analysis and data broken down by gender, “Women and Trade: The role of trade in promoting gender equality” aims to advance understanding of the relationship between trade and gender equality and to identify opportunities through which trade can improve the lives of women. Research on gender equality and trade has been held back by limited data as well as by a lack of understanding of the connections between the economic roles women play as workers, consumers and decision-makers. The report gathers new data to show how trade and trade policy can affect men and women differently — in terms of wages, consumption and welfare and in the quality of jobs available to them. New analysis based on these data suggests that expanding trade can act as an impetus for countries to improve women's rights and boost female participation in the economy. Co-published in 2020 by the World Trade Organization and the World Bank.

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Economic upgrading through global value chain participation: which policies increase the value-added gains?

The emergence of global value chains has opened up new ways to achieve development and industrialization. However, new evidence shows that not all countries have gained from participating in global value chains, and that country-specific characteristics matter for economic upgrading in global value chains. Using a panel data set of developing and industrialized countries at the sectoral level, this chapter first finds that global value chain participation as a buyer and especially as a seller increases domestic value added. Second, the chapter examines whether policy can amplify economic upgrading through global value chain integration. It finds that all assessed policy areas – targeting investment and trade flows, the business climate and institutions, as well as the quality and conditions of inputs and output – consistently magnify the effects of global value chains on domestic value added – in particular, through integration as a seller.

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World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains
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Economic Growth Corridors Through a Value-Chain Lens: The Case of the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor in Tanzania

Tanzania’s Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor (SAGCOT) is a role-model economic growth corridor (EGC). It aims at easing the incorporation of smallholder farmers into global and regional value chains through partnerships with larger agricultural companies. EGCs in general and SAGCOT in particular are not only about upgrading infrastructure. They in fact address numerous challenges to local producers, including the lack of finance and knowledge relating to markets and production as well as their low bargaining power in global value chains (GVCs). This chapter starts with a summary of the conceptual literature on GVCs, of global production networks as well as of Kaplinsky’s understanding of power dynamics within GVCs. The authors then assess SAGCOT, showing how the initiative seeks to address existing inequalities and unfavourable power dynamics in GVC development. Potential challenges that SAGCOT faces are discussed, and corresponding policy recommendations given.

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Trade in Global Value Chains : An Assessment of Labor Market Implications

The paper is structured in six further sections following this introduction. Section two develops a conceptual framework, and reviews the literature on the relationship between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Section three outlines the empirical framework and data used in the analysis. Section four presents results on the relationship between overall trade integration (through exports) and labor market outcomes. Section five then focuses specifically on GVC trade, and assesses the relationship between labor market outcomes and GVC integration as a buyer and as a seller. Section six tests if select policy indicators mediate these relationships between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Finally, section seven concludes, with a summary of results and areas for future research.

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Cultivating Smallholder Inclusion in Southern Africa’s Macadamia Nut Value Chains

This paper examines the potential for developing a macadamia nut value chain within Southern Africa, while also exploring the potential for incorporating smallholder producers into the macadamia nut industry. Using the country case studies of South Africa, Mozambique and Malawi, the paper examines the development of the macadamia nut sector in each country, highlighting the challenges faced and positive developments made in incorporating smallholders into the sector, and examining the role of African markets and producers in the international trade in macadamia nuts. The paper concludes with an understanding of the specific requirements policymakers would need to implement if a regional value chain were to be developed for the macadamia nut industry.

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Making Global Value Chains Work for Development

Economic, technological, and political shifts as well as changing business strategies have driven firms to unbundle production processes and disperse them across countries. Thanks to these changes, developing countries can now increase their participation in global value chains (GVCs) and thus become more competitive in agriculture, manufacturing and services. This is a paradigm shift from the 20th century when countries had to build the entire supply chain domestically to become competitive internationally. For policymakers, the focus is on boosting domestic value added and improving access to resources and technology while advancing development goals. However, participating in global value chains does not automatically improve living standards and social conditions in a country. This requires not only improving the quality and quantity of production factors and redressing market failures, but also engineering equitable distributions of opportunities and outcomes - including employment, wages, work conditions, economic rights, gender equality, economic security, and protecting the environment. The internationalization of production processes helps with very few of these development challenges. Following this perspective, Making Global Value Chains Work for Development offers a strategic framework, analytical tools, and policy options to address this challenge. The book conceptualizes GVCs and makes it easier for policymakers and practitioners to discuss them and their implications for development. It shows why GVCs require fresh thinking; it serves as a repository of analytical tools; and it proposes a strategic framework to guide policymakers in identifying the key objectives of GVC participation and in selecting suitable economic strategies to achieve them.

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Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa : Local Spillovers and Competitiveness in Global Value Chains

Economic, technological, and political shifts as well as changing business strategies have driven firms to unbundle production processes and disperse them across countries. Thanks to these changes, developing countries can now increase their participation in global value chains (GVCs) and thus become more competitive in agriculture, manufacturing and services. This is a paradigm shift from the 20th century when countries had to build the entire supply chain domestically to become competitive internationally. For policymakers, the focus is on boosting domestic value added and improving access to resources and technology while advancing development goals. However, participating in global value chains does not automatically improve living standards and social conditions in a country. This requires not only improving the quality and quantity of production factors and redressing market failures, but also engineering equitable distributions of opportunities and outcomes - including employment, wages, work conditions, economic rights, gender equality, economic security, and protecting the environment. The internationalization of production processes helps with very few of these development challenges. Following this perspective, Making Global Value Chains Work for Development offers a strategic framework, analytical tools, and policy options to address this challenge. The book conceptualizes GVCs and makes it easier for policymakers and practitioners to discuss them and their implications for development. It shows why GVCs require fresh thinking; it serves as a repository of analytical tools; and it proposes a strategic framework to guide policymakers in identifying the key objectives of GVC participation and in selecting suitable economic strategies to achieve them.

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Outsourcing Economics: Global Value Chains in Capitalist Development
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