Annual Report
“Geoeconomic Fragmentation, Global Value Chains, and the Future of the Global South” Annual Report 2025
2025
The Annual Report 2025 brings together recent and timely research on "Geoeconomic Fragmentation, Global Value Chains, and the Future of the Global South". The report consists of 10 concise chapters, written by the hosts and members of the Research Network Sustainable Global Supply Chains, which synthesize the latest research on how geoeconomic fragmentation is reshaping global value chains and what these changes mean for the future of the Global South. Central themes include the changing geography of trade and investment, the implications of geopolitical rivalry for global production networks, the evolving prospects for export-led development, and the opportunities and challenges arising from strategic competition over critical raw materials. In addition, several of the report's chapters examine how climate-related trade measures and supply chain due diligence regulations are transforming international trade relations and affecting development prospects in the Global South. Throughout the report, particular emphasis is placed on the conditions under which developing countries can strengthen resilience, foster structural transformation and achieve sustainable and inclusive development in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
Or see the separate chapters below:
Foreword by Dr. Bärbel Kofler (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development)
Introduction by Linda Lochner & Rainer Thiele (both Kiel Institute)
Chapter 1: A New Cold War? How Trade and Investment Linkages are Changing by Gita Gopinath (Harvard University), Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University California), Andrea Presbitero (IMF) and Petia Topalova (IMF)
Chapter 2: Horizontal and Vertical Connector Countries in a Geoeconomically Fragmenting World by Shekhar Aiyar (ICRIER), Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) and Hakan Yilmazkuday (Florida International University)
Chapter 3: Is Development Through Trade Still Possible? Vietnam in a Fragmenting World by Tevin Tafese (GIGA)
Chapter 4: Global Trade Under Pressure: The U.S. Tariffs and Their Impacts on Developing Countries by Hendrik Mahlkow (CAU Kiel, Kiel Institute, WIFO), Finn Ole Semrau (Kiel Institute) and Frauke Steglich (GIGA, Kiel Institute)
Chapter 5: How Chinese Infrastructure Lending is Reshaping Africa’s Global Value Chain Participation by Vito Amendolagine (University of Foggia) and Roberta Rabellotti (University of Pavia)
Chapter 6: Agricultural Expansion under China's Booming Demand: Inequality and Deforestation in Brazil by Samuel Siewers (GIGA, University Göttingen)
Chapter 7: Trade, treaties, and aid: Insights into North-South trade in critical raw materials by Frederik Stender and Tim Vogel (both IDOS)
Chapter 8: From Extraction to Industrial Transformation: Africa’s Energy–Mineral Integration and International Cooperation in a Fragmented Geoeconomic Order by Meike Schulze (SWP) and Phemelo Tamasiga (IDOS)
Chapter 9: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Risks and Opportunities for Developing Countries by Alfonso Medinilla (ECDPM)
Chapter 10: Due Diligence and Trade: Emerging Implications for Global Supply Chains by Frauke Steglich (Kiel Institute, GIGA)
